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Theories of Change & Logic Models

Theories of change and logic models are both used to graphically depict how an organization intends to accomplish its vision, goals, action steps, and, ultimately, intended outcomes. A theory of change tends to be more theoretical or strategic, whereas a logic model is usually action oriented and explanatory, showing the tactics a program will use to achieve certain outcomes.

Theory of Change
 

A theory of change describes how a program or initiative gets from the vision to the intended set of outcomes. It is a picture of what you ultimately hope to accomplish with your program. Theories of change are depicted visually and are ideally based on research or evidence (or, at the very least, some sound common sense). They say, “We have a vision of X. We think that if we do Y (our planned activities), eventually Z (our outcome goals) will happen and we can achieve X.”

A theory of change allows the stakeholders in a program to show how they intend to make a change, which sets the stage for intentionality in program design and delivery. Use Tool 39: Developing a Theory of Change in conjunction with Tool 36: Visioning Worksheet and Meeting Agenda and Tool 37: Goal Setting Worksheet to develop your theory of change.

Logic Models
 

We have heard from many people that logic models are anything but logical! This section will hopefully demystify the logic model and show you what a great tool it can be for turning your program goals into a solid plan to achieve your desired outcomes. Logic models do not have to be overly complicated. A logic model shows the steps that need to take place to make your program goals happen. It is your picture of how things will change and how you will achieve your intended outcomes. You can start by using five main components: goals, objectives (action steps), inputs, activities, and outcomes.

Remember your goals from earlier? Take them from Tool 37 and start there. Objectives or action steps should be taken from your goal-setting process. Fill in the steps you noted in Tool 37. You will likely think of more as you put them in action. Inputs are what you need to carry out the action steps, including staff members, supplies, and space. Don't forget to consider your theory of change here; it is your most important input. Activities represent what staff members will actually do with young people. Many people start here and miss a lot of important prework. Outcomes are derived from Tool 38. Some people like to break these up into long- and short-term outcomes, but this will be dependent on your program's intention in promoting outcomes.

Another commonly used category in logic models that has not already been noted is outputs. Outputs are the results of an activity that are not the intended outcomes but are often helpful pieces of information on your way to determining outcomes. In some cases, outputs help you evaluate outcomes. For example, program attendance and retention are often viewed as outputs. That is, we know that young people who attend more often and for a longer period of time are more likely to reap the benefits of programming (Harvard Family Research Project, 2004, 2007), so attendance is an output that leads to outcomes such as improved achievement and the acquisition of new skills. If you want to include outputs in your logic model, they fit between activities and outcomes.

It is important to note that logic models come in many types and styles, and we can't even begin to describe them all here. A great resource is the Logic Model Development Guide (W. K. Kellogg Foundation, 2004), which provides basic building blocks for a logic model, as well as three major approaches to logic models and myriad examples of ways to adapt them to fit your program. This guide is great if you have the time and motivation to explore logic models in depth.

For program planning, create a table with five columns: goals, objectives (action steps), inputs, activities, and outcomes. Start with your goals and work from left to right, making sure all the columns align with each other. In our experience, you may want to have more than one logic model. In fact, you should have one logic model for every major or overarching goal in your program. If you have more than one goal, it can really get too complicated if you try to create a single logic model for your whole program in one table. As with all planning processes, be sure to create your logic model with your stakeholders; share it; get feedback; and, most importantly, make sure it aligns with your vision statement or theory of change. Use Tool 40: Logic Model Planning Tool to help you with your planning. This visual representation of your vision and plan should be posted to remind you of what you are setting out to accomplish.

You do not need to be intimidated by the idea of a logic model. Developing a logic model helps set the stage for the sustainability of your program because you will be able to tell potential partners or funders what your program hopes to achieve and how you expect to get there. You may need to revise your plan along the way, but, at a minimum, you will have a framework for talking about it as you get started.